TUTORIAL
SEVEN
DECISION
TREES FOR LAWYERS
By
Michael D. Freeborn
In the previous tutorial, we demonstrated use of decision analysis
techniques to aid the decision whether to argue a Statute of Limitations
defense. By arguing it, we believed there was some percentage likelihood
that a part of the case would be eliminated.
In this Tutorial 7, our final exercise (insert sigh of relief here), we demonstrate that the same
decision analysis techniques can be used to consider a strategy which will
merely increase by some measure the likelihood of success on a particular
motion.
Assume here that the company believes the chances of its motion to dismiss
the negligence count would be increased from 50% to 95% if it can prove
that the plaintiff had actual knowledge of his claimed injuries more
than two years before filing suit. (Actual knowledge is different from
"constructive" knowledge, which the law implies in some
circumstances).
But proving this will require expenditure of legal fees on discovery
proceedings, including interrogatories, document requests and depositions of
the plaintiff.
How much should the company be willing to spend on this discovery?
Here
is what our Influence Diagram looks like.
Here
is our Decision Tree.
When
we run the analysis we discover that pursuing the additional discovery has the
effect of further reducing our "expected cost" of the decision to
litigate -- from $873,463 in the previous tutorial to $770,317 in this
case. This tells us we should be willing to spend as much as about
$100,000 on the strategy.
Thanks for joining us on this exercise. We hope you now have
an increased appreciation for the value of decision analysis techniques in
litigation!
We leave you with this concluding thought --
"If a man will begin with certainties he will end with doubts, but if
he will be content to begin with doubts he shall end in
certainties."
-- Francis Bacon (1561-1626)
Any questions?
Introduction
Tutorial 1
Tutorial 2
Tutorial 3
Tutorial 4
Tutorial 5
Tutorial 6
Copyright © 2001 Michael D. Freeborn. All rights reserved.
